ABSTRACT
Human mobility has been recognized as one of the critical factors determining the spread of contagious diseases, such as SARS-CoV-2, a highly contagious and elusive virus. This virus disrupts the normal lives of more than half of the global population in one way or another, claiming the lives of millions. In such cases, mobility should be managed via the imposition of certain policies. This proposed study presents a newly developed spatial platform aimed at simulating and mapping the spread of infectious diseases and mobility patterns under different scenarios based on different epidemiological models. In addition to the "business as usual" scenario, other response scenarios can be defined to reflect real-world situations, taking into consideration various parameters, including the daily rise in infections and deaths, among others. The developed system provides insights to decision-makers about strategies to be implemented and measures for controlling the spread of the virus.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the measures to curb it have profoundly affected the geography of urban activities in the past years. In this paper, we discuss its effects on urban activity in Tokyo during the first wave of COVID between February and July 2020. Different from other papers, which have analysed general changes in urban activity levels or changes in specific activities, we have focused on changes in activity levels in different types of multifunctional urban activity centres (UAC), allowing us to reveal interactions between UAC types, (combinations of) activities and location within a wider urban system. Our results show how the distribution of urban activity across UAC changed in space and time in reaction to pandemic measures, and relate these dynamics to the spatial patterns of functional specialization of UAC. The existing spatial pattern of UAC allowed urban activities to redistribute spatially, but continue without too much inhibition. Moreover, these changes appeared to be temporary, rather than resulting in irreversible urban transformations. Our analysis thus suggests that Tokyo's multilayered polynuclear structure appeared to contribute to the city's pandemic resilience, allowing urban activities to spatially reorganize, without needing to resort to a total lockdown and collapse of urban life. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.